{"id":5731,"date":"2025-11-26T23:45:29","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T22:45:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michaelgkarnavas.net\/blog\/?p=5731"},"modified":"2025-11-29T19:35:29","modified_gmt":"2025-11-29T18:35:29","slug":"putin-trump-peace-plan-part-1-appeasement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michaelgkarnavas.net\/blog\/2025\/11\/26\/putin-trump-peace-plan-part-1-appeasement\/","title":{"rendered":"The Putin\u2013Trump 28-Point \u201cPeace Plan\u201d:  Part 1 &#8211; Appeasement by Another Name"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><div id=\"google_language_translator\" class=\"default-language-en\"><\/div><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><blockquote class=\"otw-sc-quote\"><p>In the days of our sorrow when others, more powerful, have decided to beggar our ancient country\u2026 It is not we who should be ashamed.<\/p><br \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; padding-left: 200px;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2014 Josef Hora<\/em><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">When the 28-point Putin\u2013Trump \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/world\/axios-unveils-full-28-point-peace-plan-for-ukraine-and-russia\/ar-AA1QSjca\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">peace plan<\/a>\u201d surfaced, most of the world reacted with disbelief. Ukraine was given six days to accept it \u2014 an ultimatum masquerading as diplomacy. As reporting accumulated, a clearer picture emerged: the document appears to have been drafted by Putin\u2019s envoy, translated into English, and delivered to Trump\u2019s negotiating team, which adopted and repackaged it as its own. From there, it was presented to President Zelensky as the official U.S. framework for ending the war.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If Michael D. Weiss\u2019s account in his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebulwark.com\/p\/michael-weiss-trumps-ukraine-clusterck\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Bulwark<\/em> interview<\/a> proves accurate, the 28 points were hammered out by Kirill Alexandrovich Dmitriev \u2014 one of Putin\u2019s close associates\u2014together with two real-estate developers, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The draft, written first in Russian and then translated, was passed back to the Kremlin and returned to Witkoff, who has reportedly been <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/_UvknbtULms?si=ikvP_2ctfXaGqQUO\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">advising<\/a> the Russians on how Putin should \u201chandle\u201d Trump, to be presented to the Ukrainians as a U.S. peace proposal.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As if this were not troubling enough, Vice President Vance then dispatched his close friend and faithful poodle, Secretary of the Army Daniel Patrick Driscoll \u2014 ostensibly in Ukraine to study its innovative drone tactics (where the U.S. lags badly behind) \u2014 to secure his standing in the negotiations \u00a0(lest Rubio\u2019s diplomacy succeed) and <a href=\"https:\/\/share.google\/pkYNuXQNyZW6UnSIN\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">promote<\/a> his isolationist goals, by <a href=\"https:\/\/share.google\/zqwzS4J6xCnywqqYv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">intimidating and pressuring<\/a>\u00a0Kyiv into accepting the core terms of this de facto surrender within six days. Vance, a staunch isolationist, has openly expressed contempt for a strong Euro-Atlantic alliance, the stabilizing role of NATO, or the geopolitical importance of ensuring that Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty is not extinguished by an aggressive neighbor that remains a U.S. adversary.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">More revelations seem inevitable. What is already visible is a sordid sequence of parallel channels, Trump loyalists, and self-styled envoys working tirelessly to serve Trump\u2019s interests by assisting Russia in securing dominance over Ukraine\u2014whether as a pliant satellite or a fully subordinated state.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The internal confusion within the Trump administration was vaudevillian \u2014 a burlesque of errors, contradictions, and mixed messaging, prancing naked across the global stage. The world watched an uncoordinated U.S. apparatus shuffle toward capitulation, reducing America to a farcical metaphor: an unreliable ally and a transparently pro-Russian interlocutor eager to advance Putin\u2019s designs for redrawing Europe\u2019s security map.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Secretary of State Marco Rubio initially insisted the plan was merely <em>Russia\u2019s<\/em> opening \u201cwish list\u201d. After Trump pushed for ownership, Rubio reversed himself. Later \u2014 following what he described as a \u201cvery productive\u201d meeting with the Ukrainian delegation\u2014he recast it as the official <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/3657IsNuuI0?si=5RgIBSJQwYygkjeZ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">U.S. framework <\/a>for peace.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Was Rubio misled by Trump\u2019s self-styled envoys \u2014 Witkoff and Kushner\u2014who crafted the plan in tandem with Dmitriev, their Russian counterpart? (Reports suggest both Rubio and Trump only learned of the \u201cpeace plan\u201d when Dmitriev <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/DQuFKqKpnZw?si=jXXz7KxDRnk6uoxm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">leaked<\/a> it to the White House\u2013friendly outlet <em>Axios<\/em>.) Or did Rubio mislead the public by first presenting it as a purely Russian proposal while knowing it to be a joint Russian\u2013U.S. production? Rubio remains an internationalist, yes, but one whose fawning and ritual praise of dear leader Trump often overwhelm his better instincts.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Frankly, the answer hardly matters. What matters is the spectacle: how embarrassingly amateurish, confused, and transparently pro-Russian Trump\u2019s negotiating team appears when set against the seasoned geopolitical operators in Putin\u2019s orbit.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The asymmetry is not only military\u2014it is epistemic. Russia\u2019s negotiators knew exactly what they were doing. Trump\u2019s team did not. Or perhaps they did, given that several (Witkoff, Kushner, Vance, Driscoll) seem to have had their foot\u2014not merely their thumb\u2014on the scales. More troubling still, the Trump administration has entrusted billionaire businessmen and television personalities with some of the most sensitive levers of government, including peace negotiations. Their ignorance of geopolitics, statecraft, diplomacy, and history is staggering. Their unfamiliarity with Eastern European history, the stakes of the conflict, the logic of coercive diplomacy, and the modern record of Russian hybrid operations is astonishing. Historical illiteracy is not a flaw around the margins; it shapes outcomes. Here it <em>is<\/em> the essence. <em>Appeasement<\/em> is not a metaphor\u2014it is an analytic category grounded in long-observed patterns of misreading autocratic intent.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Trump\u2019s own preferences compound the dysfunction. He has openly tilted toward Russia, expressed admiration for Putin, and repeatedly signaled his desire to reduce U.S. support for Ukraine. In that sense, the plan\u2019s architecture is unsurprising. It reflects the worldview of someone who wants Russia to win, wants Ukraine to lose, and wants to present himself as the indispensable broker of the very terms he helped distort.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The resulting \u201cpeace\u201d framework is pure appeasement. Rubio &#8211; seemingly grasping the moment to prove his international chops and avoid being branded as one of Trump\u2019s pro-Russian agents in these negotiations is<a href=\"https:\/\/share.google\/M9nLAZJQgHybTis8n\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> changing tack<\/a>, delicately distancing himself from the lopsided, Kremlin-approved Dmitriev\u2013Witkoff\u2013Kushner draft\u2014whose authors, incidentally, effectively admit its acceptance would legitimize Russia\u2019s kidnapping of Ukrainian children (Point 24 b and c, combined with Point 26) the very crime for which the ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. The rest of Trump\u2019s circle seems either unaware of the reputational damage they are inflicting on the United States or MAGA-indifferent to it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/%24s_%21cZoN%21%2Cw_1456%2Cc_limit%2Cf_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe88c7849-ec7a-4d19-89bd-ae21820d484d_1529x911.png?resize=260%2C155&#038;ssl=1\" width=\"260\" height=\"155\" \/>Put plainly, in presenting this ultimatum to Zelensky, Trump was doing Putin\u2019s bidding. He was acting as his errand boy. As an American, I am ashamed. The plan is not merely appeasement or capitulation\u2014it is co-option: the United States aligning itself with Russia to ensure Ukraine\u2019s eventual demise as a sovereign state, along with its culture, language, and identity.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">With the unsurprising exception of Point 1\u2014affirming Ukrainian sovereignty\u2014the remaining 27 points are, in the words of Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Oleksandr Merezhko, \u201cludicrous,\u201d deeply offensive, and strategically incoherent. Among the lowlights:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>Ukraine must renounce NATO membership and cap its armed forces at 600,000.<\/li>\n<li>NATO may station no troops in Ukraine, while Russia is economically reintegrated.<\/li>\n<li>Putin\u2019s territorial gains are formalized and frozen.<\/li>\n<li>A \u201cPeace Council,\u201d chaired by Donald Trump, would oversee implementation.<\/li>\n<li>A reconstruction fund would draw on frozen Russian assets, with the remainder used for U.S.\u2013Russian business ventures.<\/li>\n<li>Elections in Ukraine must occur within 100 days.<\/li>\n<li>And, astonishingly, full amnesty for all perpetrators on both sides\u2014including Russian officials implicated in war crimes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This is not compromise; it is capitulation. It accommodates Russian objectives while constraining Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty, military capacity, and long-term security posture.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Many have invoked Munich. The analogy is often lazy, bordering on clich\u00e9, a reflexive reach for the nearest historical shorthand. Here, the comparison is tragically apt. In 1938, British Prime Minister Chamberlain and French Premier Daladier ceded the Sudetenland to Hitler without Czechoslovakia\u2019s participation, cloaking coerced surrender in the language of diplomacy. As Telford Taylor observed in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Munich-Price-Peace-Telford-Taylor\/dp\/0394744829\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>MUNICH: The Price of Peace<\/em><\/a> (reviewed <a href=\"https:\/\/michaelgkarnavas.net\/blog\/2023\/12\/11\/book-reviews-2023-part-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>), \u201cMunich\u201d has come to describe a yielding approach that avoids confrontation by granting the aggressor\u2019s demands\u2014<em>appeasement<\/em> in its purest form.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The lesson is not that Trump is Chamberlain or that Putin is Hitler. It is that the <em>structure<\/em> of the Putin\u2013Trump plan replicates the core pathology of Munich: a small nation\u2019s fate decided over its head; coercion laundered as diplomacy; and the aggressor rewarded under the guise of \u201cpeace.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is not only a poodle dynamic\u2014Witkoff, Kushner, and Vance as Trump\u2019s poodles, Trump as Putin\u2019s.<sup><a href=\"#footnote_1_5731\" id=\"identifier_1_5731\" class=\"footnote-link footnote-identifier-link\" title=\"I know I am overusing the term &ldquo;poodle&ldquo;. While it certainly captures the Putin-Trump relationship, perhaps &ldquo;toady&rdquo; is more accurate for the Trump worshipping enablers.&nbsp; But you get the point.\">1<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0 It is a complete failure to appreciate that Ukraine is a distinct nation with its own heritage, culture, and identity\u2014precisely what Stalin sought to erase. Putin is on the same track. Stalin tried to starve Ukrainians into submission, as Anne Applebaum documents brilliantly in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goodreads.com\/book\/show\/33864676-red-famine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RED FAMINE \u2013\u00a0<em>Stalin\u2019s War on Ukraine<\/em><\/a> (reviewed <a href=\"https:\/\/michaelgkarnavas.net\/blog\/?s=Red+famine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>) Putin bombs, kills, and kidnaps them into submission\u2014with not merely approval but assistance from Trump.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The grotesqueness of the plan is obvious to anyone objective. Republican Congressman Don Bacon\u2014a retired Air Force Brigadier General\u2014called the U.S. proposal <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/Vr4fGL-YUVQ?si=jR65XVc3GMe0lX5V\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u201cembarrassing\u201d<\/a>, praising the evolving European counter-proposal as \u201cten times better.\u201d Retired Lt. General Mark Hertling\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/8OA1Htl2aIQ?si=mX-ApXs8vu0QVz0e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">analysis <\/a>on <em>The Bulwark<\/em> underscores just how strategically bankrupt the U.S. plan is.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The historical echoes of Munich lie not in personalities but in structure. Diplomacy is not abstract. Frameworks shape the battlefield, signal intentions to allies and adversaries, and define the boundaries of what is possible. The Putin\u2013Trump plan\u2019s structure is one of surrender disguised as statesmanship.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Let us therefore call it what it is: a geopolitical hallucination, a blueprint for Ukrainian submission drafted in Moscow, laundered through Trump\u2019s team, and presented to Kyiv as if Washington possessed leverage rather than self-inflicted weakness. It is appeasement with modern branding\u2014an assault on Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty dressed up as peace.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Had Ukraine accepted it \u2014 as Trump demanded \u2014 the Putin\u2013Trump plan would not have ended the war. It would have green-lit the next one.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>NEXT <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Prolegomenon to Part II: <em>Point 25 and the Law of Amnesties<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If the geopolitical architecture of the Putin\u2013Trump plan is one of capitulation, its legal architecture is something even more alarming. Point 25 \u2014 the proposed blanket amnesty \u2014 is the plan\u2019s most revealing and most dangerous feature. It is not merely morally offensive; it is legally explosive.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Part II will examine why.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since 2016 when I last posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/michaelgkarnavas.net\/blog\/2016\/07\/22\/amnesties-and-pardons-part-ii\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">amnesty<\/a>, the legal landscape governing amnesties has shifted dramatically: the consolidation of <em>jus cogens<\/em> norms, the ICC\u2019s expanding jurisprudence, the hardening duty to prosecute atrocity crimes, and the growing recognition that treaty provisions conflicting with peremptory norms are invalid <em>ab initio<\/em>. Against this backdrop, a universal, retroactive, and forward-looking amnesty for all political and military actors\u2014including those implicated in war crimes, crimes against humanity, or even genocide\u2014is not simply objectionable. It may well be void beyond the two states of this war.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The questions this raises are profound. Could such an amnesty survive scrutiny before the ICC, which already has active arrest warrants? What of the \u201cboutique court\u201d now being constructed to prosecute crimes arising from this war, including the still-untested but increasingly central crime of aggression\u2014an offense that may well form the concrete foundation for future prosecutions at the ICC and beyond? How would domestic courts exercising universal jurisdiction treat an amnesty clause that purports to erase accountability for international crimes?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">And more provocatively still: even if Ukraine and Russia agreed, could an amnesty of this scope be <em>imposed<\/em> on third states\u2014neutralizing prosecutions outside the peace agreement entirely? The answer is almost certainly no, but the question exposes the fatal flaw in Point 25\u2019s design.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">These are not abstract legal puzzles. They cut to the heart of why the Putin\u2013Trump plan is untenable\u2014not only geopolitically, but juridically. If Point 25 is the keystone of the plan, then the entire structure rests on a legal impossibility.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Part II will pick up from here.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-919\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michaelgkarnavas.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/comments2.png?resize=274%2C184&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Don't forget to leave your comments\" width=\"274\" height=\"184\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<ol class=\"footnotes\"><li id=\"footnote_1_5731\" class=\"footnote\">I know I am overusing the term &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/dictionary.cambridge.org\/us\/dictionary\/english\/be-poodle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">poodle<\/a>&#8220;. While it certainly captures the Putin-Trump relationship, perhaps &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/thecontentauthority.com\/blog\/lapdog-vs-toady\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">toady<\/a>&#8221; is more accurate for the Trump worshipping enablers.\u00a0 But you get the point.<span class=\"footnote-back-link-wrapper\"> [<a href=\"#identifier_1_5731\" class=\"footnote-link footnote-back-link\">&#8617;<\/a>]<\/span><\/li><\/ol>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When the 28-point Putin\u2013Trump \u201cpeace plan\u201d surfaced, most of the world reacted with disbelief. Ukraine was given six days to accept it \u2014 an ultimatum masquerading as diplomacy. As reporting accumulated, a clearer picture emerged: the document appears to have been drafted by Putin\u2019s envoy, translated into English, and delivered to Trump\u2019s negotiating team, which &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/michaelgkarnavas.net\/blog\/2025\/11\/26\/putin-trump-peace-plan-part-1-appeasement\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The Putin\u2013Trump 28-Point \u201cPeace Plan\u201d:  Part 1 &#8211; Appeasement by Another Name&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,21],"tags":[36,7],"class_list":["post-5731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-current-events","category-international-criminal-law","tag-current-events","tag-international-criminal-law"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Putin\u2013Trump 28-Point \u201cPeace Plan\u201d: Part 1 - Appeasement by Another Name - michaelgkarnavas.net\/Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Putin-Trump &quot;peace plan&quot; is a blueprint for Ukrainian surrender, drafted in Moscow and promoted by Trump loyalists. 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