{"id":1732,"date":"2016-11-09T16:24:21","date_gmt":"2016-11-09T15:24:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/michaelgkarnavas.net\/blog\/?p=1732"},"modified":"2019-10-22T12:29:01","modified_gmt":"2019-10-22T10:29:01","slug":"midnight-over-dawn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michaelgkarnavas.net\/blog\/2016\/11\/09\/midnight-over-dawn\/","title":{"rendered":"Midnight over Dawn: an uncertain future for international norms"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/div><\/p>\n

\"midnight\"<\/a>With the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States of America (US), the international community may be wondering whether international norms are likely to be respected by the most powerful nation (militarily and economically) in the world.\u00a0 As one of the permanent five (P5) members of the United Nations Security Council, the US under a Donald Trump presidency may be tempted \u2013 as the US has done in the past \u2013 to pay lip service to international norms with virtual impunity.\u00a0 The US is not alone; other P5 members have acted with impunity. Russia in Aleppo<\/a> is a fine example.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump\u2019s take on international norms is untenable, if, in fact, he believes what he was saying on the stump. Demagogues on the constant rant \u2013 as Trump has been for the past two years \u2013 tend to eventually buy into what was initially convenient claptrap. \u00a0While his positions may have resonated with the unwary, they reveal a profound ignorance or utter contempt for many universally accepted international norms.<\/p>\n

Will Trump re-introduce torture<\/a> as an interrogation tool? Will he cajole South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia to go nuclear<\/a>, as he has suggested they should do? Will he \u201cbomb the shit out of<\/a>\u201d ISIS? Ask the civilians and humanitarian workers in Aleppo<\/a> about the consequences of such bombings; ISIS is embedded in urban areas using civilians as human shields. Let\u2019s not even question his irrational, irresponsible, and irreverent positions on immigration<\/a>, free trade<\/a>, and the environment<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s views are as anachronistic as they are divisive.<\/p><\/blockquote><\/div>Trump\u2019s views are as anachronistic as they are divisive. \u00a0No telling now whether he will carry through with some of his wacky, illogical, and dangerous ideas \u2013 especially those that are blatantly contrary to international norms.<\/p>\n

Mind you, Clinton, who by all accounts is relatively hawkish and less risk-averse than President Obama, seemed ready to use military force, including putting boots on the ground (though she denied it) in Syria. She has argued<\/a> for a no-fly zone over parts of Syria, augmenting the number of US troops training and assisting Iraqi and Kurdish forces, and providing greater assistance to Sunni Arab fighters. Though it is doubtful whether she would have taken Russia to task over the war crimes and crimes against humanity Russia seems to be committing with Bashar al-Assad\u00a0and his armed forces, she probably would have ratcheted up economic sanctions against Russia<\/a> over its actions against Ukraine\u2019s territorial integrity.\u00a0 She might have even expanded the US missile defenses in Eastern Europe. And considering her views on Russian interference in the electoral process, she most likely would have engaged in a bit of tit for tat<\/em> retaliatory cyber attacks for good measure. \u00a0Not exactly a picture of tranquility, but who says that realpolitik is ever tranquil.<\/p>\n

Clinton has said in the past that it was \u201ca great regret<\/a>\u201d that the US is not a signatory to the International Criminal Court\u2019s (ICC) Rome Statute, claiming \u201cI think we could have worked out some of the challenges that are raised concerning our membership. But that has not yet come to pass.\u201d \u00a0As promising as it sounds, this was empty rhetoric. Even if in her heart of hearts, she wanted the US to sign the Rome Statute (and there is no indication that she harbored such thoughts), there would have been significant pushback from US politicians and high-ranking military officers.\u00a0 From the perspective of the political and military elite, there is no profit for the US in joining the ICC. It all seems academic now. With Trump as the next US President, expect no change in the US\u2019s policy concerning the ICC.<\/p>\n

Clinton, for all her character flaws, would have been a sober President who would walk the talk. She understands the value of international norms and the need to adhere to them. She was clear that she would neither revive nor tolerate torture<\/a> for the interrogation of captured prisoners or detained unlawful combatants. Her thinking on issues<\/a> such as the environment, immigration, trade, security and so on \u2013 all of which are relevant to the globe at large \u2013 were coherent, measured, and pragmatic.\u00a0 Though not transformative (she is no Obama), her vision of how the US should interact with the rest of the world \u2013 the role the US should play and how it should play it \u2013 was clear, consistent, and customary.<\/p>\n

Trump lives in a different universe. Unlike Clinton, who saw the US in the light of dawn in its relations with the rest of the world, Trump has warned that in the US, having embraced rhetoric over action, it is a minute before midnight; all dark and gloom. Hopefully now that he has been elected, he will re-assess his views and come to the realization that international norms do matter, that the US cannot willy-nilly do as it pleases, and that within the community of nations the US is expected to take the moral and legal high ground in all its affairs.<\/p>\n

President Trump can be transformative, but he will first need to jettison the dark rhetoric of Candidate Trump. Time will tell.<\/p>\n

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